RANTS, RAVES, QUIPS AND QUIBBLES

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About Those Scores...

"The most powerful critic of any kind, any where," (LA Times); "a critical comment...can be financially devastating to the producer." (Atlantic 2000); "his influence over the industry is akin to Alan Greenspan's sway over financial markets" (MSNBC); "consumers no longer buy wine, retailers no longer sell it; instead they buy and sell scores" (Slate). Trumpeted in the media outside the wine world, parroted by some retailers and wine collectors, pilloried by others, quoted and mocked even on the silver screen (think Mondovino); the one thing most people in the U.S. wine business or observing it seem to agree on is that the leading wine critics, in particular Robert Parker and the Spectator's stable of writers, really matter. A lot. 

Salespeople want scores to help them sell wine. Store managers and restaurant buyers use scores as an excuse to stock or reject wines. In a recent posting on Mark Squires' Wine Board, one enthusiast seriously proposed that Robert Parker's retirement would have a greater impact on the wine industry than any other event. Sure puts climate change, vine diseases, prohibition and global depression in their place!

All of this is backed with the power of a zillion anecdotes and not very much hard data. 

I'll set aside the esthetic arguments about the "international" wine style and whether quality is linear. I'll ignore for now the statistical silliness of the 100 point scale. I just want people to stop thinking that these scores control the wine market.

Some fun facts:

The Wine Opinions panel tracks core involved wine drinkers (roughly 18 million consumers who dominate purchases of over $15 wine in the U.S.). Among them only 12% read Robert Parker reviews. About 48% read the Wine Spectator or some extract of it, or visit its website. The magazine with the largest readership, Food & Wine, still reaches only 61% of these people. (Note that this is readership in any form, not subscriptions or sales). Among those who report reading any of these media, 52% say that Robert Parker has little or no influence on their wine purchases and 31% say the same for the Wine Spectator. Only 29% of them agree there is a big quality difference between an 88 point wine and a 92 point wine, while 42% disagree.

In a study for the NVGGA, we asked a representative sample of high end wine consumers to rate their likelihood of buying four different wines, distinguished only by their reviews. All the reviews were complimentary. However, two of them were mid-80 point reviews with adjectives like "delicate", "understated" and "balanced". The other two were mid-90 point reviews with adjectives like "bold and ultraripe" or "rich and opulent". One might expect the latter two reviews to obtain much higher interest from consumers. And one would be wrong. Consumer intent to purchase was fairly close for all sets of reviews. The largest percentages either showed strong intent to purchase at least one mid-80 and one mid-90 wine (43%) or were indifferent to at least one mid-80 and one mid-90 point wine (48%). The greatest difference appeared to be between those who believed reviews (a substantial minority) and those who did not (a slightly larger group). The type of the review and wine style only affected the answers of 15-23% of the consumers, depending on the review.

As someone who used to review financial and accounting data from many different wineries,  I can assure you there are plenty of successful wines selling at high prices with scores below the sacred 90 point line. This fact was also illustrated by results of the most recent CoreTrack report from Wine Opinions. A section of the report focused on consumer perceptions of "old guard" Napa Cabernet producers vs. the newer "cult" wineries, which have received rave reviews from the critics and obtained eye-popping scores and prices. Four Cabernets from each type of winery were compared in consumer awareness, trial, and image.  When we asked respondents (regular high end wine buyers) which wine they would choose for a special occasion dinner, the rankings did not at all correspond to the Wine Spectator numerical ratings:

In fact, it looks like a clean sweep by the old-fashioned, lower-scoring, decidedly uncultish wineries. Of course, part of this difference may be due to greater familiarity and part of this is due to price differences. But that's just the point.  There  are other factors that outweigh critics' scores in the marketplace. It's time to wean ourselves off of the wine scores.